My only comment on Japan/Abe and his monetary plans is that for every action, there is usually a counter action by other countries and all the countries racing to the bottom with their currencies may lead to something more than a currency war. History shows this.
"Post some of the history you refer to? "
World War 2 with Japan started with currency wars, followed by trade wars followed by embargo's and finally war.
"I forgot to mention…even relatively speaking….our trade imbalance has dwarfed Japans for decades. I don’t get the relevance of that. Life goes on."
When they were a net exporter the demands on the Yen were less. As net importers (Oil for electricity) they have to print more Yen to pay. This is a tipping point for them, IMHO and will speed up their day of reckoning for their "Lost Decade".
"The US still dwarfs other counties for gold reserves….especially Russia and china from what I see............"
Our "stated" gold reserves dwarf their "stated" reserves.
The question on everyone's mind is if ours has been leased and encumbered in any way. Many, including myself believe that the Gold and Silver ETFs were created to extend the paper game without the physical backing it. Notice how the demand for repatriation of Gold is happening? Venezuela, Germany, Swiss, Denmark are some of the names wanting their Gold that is stored here, in England and to some extent in France.
This could be a whole topic for discussion. I would say you might look at the price of gold in relation to the amount of dollars printed over the past 10 years and see if you think the price is undervalued or over valued.
Currency: This sort of thing has being on since long before WWII. The Yen right now is well above its historic norm and a good part to blame for the trade imbalance. The sky will not fall if they dump some money into the system. It may not even have the desired effect. It didn’t here….yet…….contrary to dogma.
Net Exporter: Good point. ….. although I think the aging homogeneous population may likely be far more a threat to the entire system than this burp they are going through with energy and exports. The nuclear thing is a very real problem and as I believe they import pretty much all fossil fuel energy. Time will tell. With our 100% interconnected world…there will always be a Japan story to mull about.
Now..on to gold.
I’ve had a theory for a long time now…..perhaps not a theory…..maybe reality…. that:
It’s a given that: stock and commodity traders main goal is to make money. That is not to denigrate that pursuit. The country is built on that premise. I’m just stating a fact to get started here. I’m not sure how much of a player you are in commodities, but I’m writing this because of your thoughts on gold/silver …which I find to be a little outlandish and subscribing to the ‘conspiratorial’ theories which abound…especially so with the current administration.
For the same reason that I stated in a post above here that commodity speculation (with not enough skin in the game) has skewed energy and food costs……I think that if the buzz in your ranks is that Shadowstats is correct….and the gold/silver ETFs et al were part of a process to dupe us further...then the result of that is you have skewed the market yourself by the way you trade these positions. …. Possibly based on entirely incorrect hyped thinking. In other words, fundamentals are not controlling the market. Hyped rhetoric is. Traders are trading positions by virtue of what they perceive as truth. The market has been fixated on gold for the last many years when, in reality, there may be no legitimate reason to be so. One could also go a step further and say: “Oh well…perception IS reality. Could be, but that doesn’t make it right…or the best path forward for us. It will never be given up, but what is a good reason for gold to even be in the mix. It is certainly not there to back up our money. There’s also likely not nearly enough gold in the world to go back to a gold standard…and what there is controlled by a handful of players. I don’t see the gold standard coming back. IMO…a good thing.
Now let’s switch to stocks because the same holds true there. Every day inane TV/internet commentary tells us what “The Market” is doing, what ‘investors’ like, what they don’t like. Every little blip in the market is explained in detail by a pundit. They have answer for everything….then the next day they have an answer to explain why they were wrong the day before. On CNBC, 99% of the commentary is supply side based and I’m sure gold is a hot topic as well. Again, the market is driven by hyped commentary, not fundamentals. I haven’t watched anything on CNBC in many years. I hope you don’t use that channel as a main source of info. It’s hardly an objective source based on fundamental research. …Although maybe you have to watch it because it is a tool from which you can derive some ‘skewed’ info which will aid in your trading day. I hope not, but I can’t help but be very cynical about this.
Another culprit in the market for both commodities and stocks is computer generated trading. That too skews the market on a daily basis and has for years. 100s of millions of shares are traded on triggers having nothing to do with human input or a company’s fundamentals. The flash crashes were a result of such trading run amock. … But computerized trading goes on every day. Read the article below…maybe you have. Most here probably not. I find this private sector manipulation of people’s money to be far worse than the government being involved with retirement funds and possibly suggesting ways to go up against such market makers…whose only goal is to make millions of dollars on fractions of a penny in milliseconds. Also remembering that market volatility means “Cha Ching” for traders of all stripes.
I started in the stock market back in 1982. I had been out of work for a year and decided there had to be a better way to make money than by the hour. ( I must digress and say that was under Reagan’s watch. Unemployment was 10.8% for a while in 1982. I didn’t get back to work in my area until 1985..and that was 70 miles away) I have followed it closely ever since and watched this transformation to the system currently in place. …The endless financial (market manipulating) news cycle, the garbage which pops up on the internet with a mouse stroke…which many suck up as truth. I’ve watched solid blue chip companies miss their ‘mark’ by a penny and be sold off immediately…only to be scooped back up by market makers and sold back into a rally because there really was no reason to sell them off for missing their mark by a penny. To add insult to injury, many of the analysts making these calls are what I stereotype as ‘snot nosed kids’ with a little college business background who really have no clue about the ‘boots on the ground’ business of running a company. To think they are calling the shots is somewhat disgusting to me.