Oil Embargo

Daniel M.
04-28-2008, 01:34 PM
Some of us remember the Arab Oil Embargo of the 70's, but some may not have heard of it.

For reasons I don't remember, the Arab nations cut off our oil supply. Gas was rationed and the last number of your license plate (odd or even) determed the day you could buy gas (odd or even). That did not mean you could find gas to buy. Lots of "sorry, no gas" signs at stations. Ho much you could buy was set daily by the station/oil company.

There were lots of public service announcements about how to get the most out of what gas you had, I.E. no jackrabbit starts, turn off your engine if you were going to be idling for longer than 1 minute, etc. The national speed limit was also reduced to 55MPH.

I am beginning to see some some of the same information being broadcast once again.

Do you think that the OPEC nations (primarily the Arab nations) will do another oil embargo?

Do you think another 55MPH National speed limit will be imposed?

csimo
04-28-2008, 01:42 PM
Yes I remember it well (started in 1973). The reasons were complicated, but the primary reason was that OPEC refused to sell oil to anyone that supported Israel.

I don't see such a thing happening again in the near future, but I can't see the future any better than anyone else.

Prices seem to be going out of control much like 1973, but we're lacking that spark to cause an embargo. Egypt, Syria, and Israel seem to be getting along fairly well.

I suspect an embargo today would be considered as an attack on the USA. Our reaction would not be as restrained as it was in 1973.

djeaux
04-28-2008, 02:45 PM
I heard on National Peoples Radio (NPR) last week that OPEC had voted to increase production ... in 2012.

How long, though, before oil company execs get classified as terrorists? (I heard that Exxon/Mobil has reported the largest corporate profits in history...)

HondaTech
04-28-2008, 02:55 PM
How long, though, before oil company execs get classified as terrorists? (I heard that Exxon/Mobil has reported the largest corporate profits in history...)

Count me as a terrorist then, I invested in ExxonMobil when I graduated HS (it was prior to the merger and only Exxon at the time). The largest profit in history just makes me happier and happier.

Capitalism is a good system, but it does have drawbacks. The US could use the oil it has within its own borders for its own people.... BUT, you can make more money by selling it to other countries, like China, or Japan.


Gas prices are a fact of life and are not going to get cheaper. You can pay, or you can choose to not drive. I stopped complaining a long time ago, because it will not change anything, just further upset you.



HT

djeaux
04-28-2008, 03:04 PM
Oh, I'm sure my pension and deferred comp plans invest heavily in oil & gas, as do Ralph Nadir's pension and deferred comp plans.

But it's not as simple as pay or choose not to drive. Many of us must drive or involuntarily enter the ranks of the unemployed. Isn't it interesting, too, that the folks who can afford to live close to where they work are increasingly those who don't worry about the cost of fuel?

(P.S. The misspelling of Ralph's name is intentional ;))

2Hondas
04-29-2008, 05:39 AM
I don't believe we will see an embargo, OPEC is very happy right now that we are paying through the nose for oil. I heard a storyline on NPR this morning that OPEC said $200 per barrel oil is not out of the question. That would equate to about $9.33 a gallon for gas. THAT would smack anyone in the wallet, even the large SUV rich.

GeNeRaL
04-29-2008, 06:48 AM
How long, though, before oil company execs get classified as terrorists? (I heard that Exxon/Mobil has reported the largest corporate profits in history...)
How does one become a terrorist by making profits?

GeNeRaL
04-29-2008, 06:49 AM
I don't believe we will see an embargo, OPEC is very happy right now that we are paying through the nose for oil.

Exactly! No one will cut down the supply while they are making their $$$ at record margins.

djeaux
04-29-2008, 07:30 AM
How does one become a terrorist by making profits?

The methods used to make the profits. (The Mafia is all about profits. Does that make the mob a bunch of good capitalists?)

Price gouging. Creating an artificial situation to jack prices. Convincing the American public it's related to "green" laws. But more than anything, running prices to ensure record profits during a recessionary period when the rest of the economy is teetering on the brink.

Making profits is more important than contributing to long-term economic stability. Things keep going the way they're going & we'll see oil profits tank big time as, sector by sector, consumers indeed have to quit driving & then, sector by sector, workers indeed have to quit working because they cannot get to work. People perceive this & they quit spending on other goods. Ripple effect.

This is also one reason that those "economic incentive" checks aren't going to help the economy much. Folks are just paying off their gasoline credit cards with them.

A guy who spends 25% of his income simply getting to work (and will be spending 30% or 40% next week) is obviously not spending as much on other things. When he reaches the point where it is not profitable to work, he will quit working. The profits of the oil companies automagically cause loss of profits for everyone else.

That is what I mean by terrorism.

FlaGuy509
04-29-2008, 08:06 AM
I was always amused (and not in a good way) by the folks who claimed higher gas prices would lead to us conserving a disappearing resource. These are the people who have no concept of the folks out there that are working their asses off just to get by and right now half their salary is going in their gas tanks so oil companies can rake in their (obscene)record profits. These folks aren't jumping in their $40k sports cars or SUV's, they're mostly young folks just trying to be responsible. I agree with Djeaux, at some point they're just gonna say "screw it" and let the government support them.

GeNeRaL
04-29-2008, 08:10 AM
Ok I can see them labeled as a liar, price gouger, deceitful, etc.

I think my view on what a terrorist is just a bit different than yours is all. I see what you mean. :)

Actually, my views are completely different on other related things discussed here as well. For example. if someone makes say $80k a year salary, and they are spending $40k on fuel...they should consider resolving the problem with a toyota prius or perhaps a different work or home location where there is not such a drastic commute.

Don't get me wrong, i think the gas prices are ridiculous and something needs to be done, just like the next guy, I just don't see the logic in commuting like 200 miles each day or something, if you know what I mean. I try to think for myself and instead of wallowing in the fact that gas prices blow, I try to figure out the best way for me to get by however i need to get by.

ANyhow, not trying to get too intense in debate, just throwing out my point of view.

:)

djeaux
04-29-2008, 08:35 AM
For example. if someone makes say $80k a year salary, and they are spending $40k on fuel...they should consider resolving the problem with a toyota prius or perhaps a different work or home location where there is not such a drastic commute.

What I had in mind -- and this is much more common where I live -- is someone who makes $30K a year, drives a 1995 Chevy pickup, and can't afford to live within 35 miles of their job. Another "unique to my locale" situation is the logger who has to drive a 4WD to get to his job, frequently drives 70-100 miles to the job site & gets laid off every time the price of chippersaw wood fluctuates. Both of these categories of people do tend to have heavy investments in weapons, too. :eek:

($80K/year is roughly double the median family income in these parts.)

ANyhow, not trying to get too intense in debate, just throwing out my point of view.

:)

Indeed. What I enjoy around here is that folks (like yourself) understand how to engage in a civil discussion, how to disagree without being disagreeable. Except, of course, if the subject is Cold Air Intakes or the question of whether the Ridgeline is a "real truck" :D

2Hondas
04-29-2008, 11:31 AM
We have a "female," loosely used wording for sure, that drives 80 miles one way to work. What does it drive? A Dodge Ramcharger 4x4 with huge tires, and half an exhaust. She lives out in the East hills of Ohio, and complains all of the time about her drive and gas prices. You ask her why doesn't she drive a smaller truck, or move closer, and she gets all pissy and defends her right to do what she wants. Of course this is a daily rant on her part. I believe there are a lot of people like her running around in older trucks that have had no maintenance to speak of, getting likely 8 miles per gallon. Heck, I fret over paying to come to work, and even if gas were $ 9.33 a gallon, I would have no problem making a few minor adjustments and surviving. My big concern is the price of everything else that will continue to rise, causing a loss of jobs, and a further drain on the US economy.

djeaux
04-29-2008, 11:44 AM
And on an unrelated front, have other folks here received that wonderful card from their electric company showing that their per kilowatt hour rate is about to skyrocket? Considering that electric power isn't generated, for the most part, from imported crude oil but from domestic coal and natural gas ... well ...

"They used to grow food in Kansas.
Now they wanna grow it on the moon and eat it raw.
I can see the day coming
When even your home garden is gonna be against the law."

GeNeRaL
04-29-2008, 11:53 AM
We have a "female," loosely used wording for sure, that drives 80 miles one way to work. What does it drive? A Dodge Ramcharger 4x4 with huge tires, and half an exhaust. She lives out in the East hills of Ohio, and complains all of the time about her drive and gas prices. You ask her why doesn't she drive a smaller truck, or move closer, and she gets all pissy and defends her right to do what she wants. Of course this is a daily rant on her part. I believe there are a lot of people like her running around in older trucks that have had no maintenance to speak of, getting likely 8 miles per gallon. Heck, I fret over paying to come to work, and even if gas were $ 9.33 a gallon, I would have no problem making a few minor adjustments and surviving. My big concern is the price of everything else that will continue to rise, causing a loss of jobs, and a further drain on the US economy.
Hah!

I also have a friend like this person, in a way. He tells me all the time how the it worse than so many others because he drives a Ford Expedition 35 miles each way for work, every day. Then he talks about getting a new car and I say he should go for something fuel efficient for his commute (he has no family, no kids, no pets, single male, etc.) and he fires back how he can't be bothered with small cars and that there's no way anything non-4wd can make it to his work in snow....even though his work is on a main road off the highway. I've never missed work due to snow even in my 92 civic that i drove for 7 years, but he insists it's "different" for him.

:p

Humble Pie
04-29-2008, 12:04 PM
And on an unrelated front, have other folks here received that wonderful card from their electric company showing that their per kilowatt hour rate is about to skyrocket? Considering that electric power isn't generated, for the most part, from imported crude oil but from domestic coal and natural gas ... well ...

"They used to grow food in Kansas.
Now they wanna grow it on the moon and eat it raw.
I can see the day coming
When even your home garden is gonna be against the law."

A little obscure Dyan......:cool:

djeaux
04-29-2008, 12:08 PM
A little obscure Dyan......:cool:

Union Sundown.

"It's sundown on the Union.
What's made in the U.S.A.
Sure was a good idea
Until greed got in the way."
One of the best lines: "The car I drive is a Chevrolet. It was put together down in Argentina by a man making 30 cents a day."

rakapur
04-29-2008, 02:56 PM
i wasnt even born then, but maybe they should do gas rationing won't that make gas cheaper??
we gotta think of something, think about it if oil is so expesive why did Shell report huge earnings this quarter??:mad:

Pug
04-29-2008, 04:40 PM
Funny that "car-pooling" hasn't been mentioned here yet...

On my way to work today, out of the ~20 vehicles that I saw on the road, 2 had more than just the driver. And more than 1/2 of those vehicles were either SUVs or pick-ups.
On the way back home I counted 33 vehicles: 11 pickups, 8 SUV's, 11 cars, and 2 Harley's. Both of the bikes had passengers and one of the cars (an older Civic) actually had passengers in the back seat! [I couldn't see into one car (a Caddy) with tinted-windows].

Looks like the people around here haven't made the move to this solution... yet. I haven't. My unpredictable work hours don't make it feasible.

Weren't there "incentives" of some kind, back then, for driving a multi-passenger vehicle? HOV lanes were instituted that only "high-occupancy vehicles" could travel. I remember people buying mannequins and dressing-up stuffed animals to take advantage of that "right". :rolleyes:

What REALLY sux is that there's PLENTY of oil in the reserves, and contrary to what the truckers want (opening them up to bring gas prices down), I would see that move as just another source of profit for the gas companies.

I DO think that gas TAXES should be cut-back or eliminated.
Use moneys gained through the state lotteries instead, for example, to fix the roads. :rolleyes:


There IS no oil shortage. Not yet, anyways.
Hasn't the price of oil been artificially inflated long enough for EVERYONE to understand the reason why we're paying more at the pump? :confused:

romeofrosty
04-29-2008, 05:59 PM
There IS no oil shortage. Not yet, anyways.
Hasn't the price of oil been artificially inflated long enough for EVERYONE to understand the reason why we're paying more at the pump? :confused:

Exactly right. There is plenty of gas to be had. The price is over-inflated due to speculation....any stupid excuse to tack on a few more dollars to a barrel of oil. The weatherman said the "hurricane" word, some sheik has a runny nose today, the ocean temperature increased .0000001 degrees today, etc., etc. :mad:

mdwalls
04-29-2008, 06:40 PM
Union Sundown.

"It's sundown on the Union.
What's made in the U.S.A.
Sure was a good idea
Until greed got in the way."
One of the best lines: "The car I drive is a Chevrolet. It was put together down in Argentina by a man making 30 cents a day."

I'll repeat what I said in another forum. Every sick day, vacation day, 40 hour work week and paid health bennies you may get, you can thank a union worker. Why is it greed for a working man to make a good living ?

northernlights
04-29-2008, 07:36 PM
We can all sit here and complain about it but has anyone really changed their way of life yet? Have you quit buying any of your everyday things like, newspaper, smokes, coffee, alcohol, movies, eating out the list could go on and on. Are you going on vacation this year? I dont think most people have done anything hardcore yet. It aint gonna get better anytime soon. Hell we all still have this stupid computor running, how much does that cost ya. You'll know when it gets really bad, this aint nothin. Turn on the tube and see how others in the world are living, it could be worse.

UOVB
04-29-2008, 07:41 PM
The methods used to make the profits. (The Mafia is all about profits. Does that make the mob a bunch of good capitalists?)

Price gouging. Creating an artificial situation to jack prices. Convincing the American public it's related to "green" laws. But more than anything, running prices to ensure record profits during a recessionary period when the rest of the economy is teetering on the brink.

Making profits is more important than contributing to long-term economic stability. Things keep going the way they're going & we'll see oil profits tank big time as, sector by sector, consumers indeed have to quit driving & then, sector by sector, workers indeed have to quit working because they cannot get to work. People perceive this & they quit spending on other goods. Ripple effect.

This is also one reason that those "economic incentive" checks aren't going to help the economy much. Folks are just paying off their gasoline credit cards with them.

A guy who spends 25% of his income simply getting to work (and will be spending 30% or 40% next week) is obviously not spending as much on other things. When he reaches the point where it is not profitable to work, he will quit working. The profits of the oil companies automagically cause loss of profits for everyone else.

That is what I mean by terrorism.

The question is "Do you like change?"
Go to countries with high taxes on gasoline. You will see smaller cars, more transit and people do with less and live closer to work. Are you ready for change when it's not likely to be a short term change like the 1970's oil embargo? World demand is changing and forget about China demanding oil, there's also a smaller country called India. So get ready for change and ask your self if you like what's coming? Oil companies can make big profits if they want, but they will do two things. One, they will price their product into lower consumption as people change away from fuel consumption and two they will find that if they don't reinvest heavily today (lowering todays profits) that they will be rapidly left behind in tomorrows discoveries of oil fields. Of course Alberta can re-elect Ralph Klein and ship expensive oil sand crude south and Chavez can send expensive oil sand crude north...

northernlights
04-29-2008, 07:57 PM
Tahts it I'm going to start walking to work :mad: .

csimo
04-29-2008, 08:03 PM
We can all sit here and complain about it but has anyone really changed their way of life yet? Have you quit buying any of your everyday things like, newspaper, smokes, coffee, alcohol, movies, eating out the list could go on and on. Are you going on vacation this year? I dont think most people have done anything hardcore yet. It aint gonna get better anytime soon. Hell we all still have this stupid computor running, how much does that cost ya. You'll know when it gets really bad, this aint nothin. Turn on the tube and see how others in the world are living, it could be worse.

I'll give you an answer that will surprise you...

I'm writing this on a laptop that uses about 1/10th of the electric of a desktop computer. I'm sitting in my house that I built last year from Structural Insulated Panels rather than traditional frame construction (2 1/2 times the strength of 2x6" construction, and R50 walls), spray foam R66 insulation in my attic, and heated and cooled by a geothermal ground source system. I can run my entire house independent of the grid if I choose by using my own 25kw generator. Nearly all my lighting is fluorescent. The exterior lighting is Fluorex (66 watt bulbs equal to 550 watt incandescent). I have my own water and sewage system and don't rely on any city services. I use flash hot water systems rather than traditional hot water tanks. I can heat / cool my home for under $50 per month.

Does this mean I'm an environmentalist? Not at all... none of the above was done for environmental reasons. I knew energy prices would do nothing but go up and quite frankly I don't care to pay the power company a lot of money. That was my one and only reason.

Global warming? I've read a lot on the subject. I do believe that our planet is about 0.2 degrees warmer on average than 20 years ago, but I also believe that's within the range of statistical anomaly. We have much better measuring instruments than 20 years ago (and beyond) and many (most?) of the measuring stations used then are now gone.

Even if we establish that global warming exists I have yet to be convinced that there is evidence that humans are responsible for any significant part of the rise. I do see evidence that shows the planet does go thru both heat and cooling cycles and this would occur even if no humans existed. Where we are on the cycle between heat and ice appears to be impossible to determine.

Do I deny that humans are responsible for all or part of global warming? Nope. Just that those promoting such beliefs have failed to provide evidence (and I'm not talking about a political movie, or newspaper articles). I have read quite a bit, and yes I'm aware of the supposed rise in CO2 in ice samples (they fail to acknowledge that previous evidence would have melted). If you believe CO2 is the problem then we should be getting rid of all these catalytic converters on automobiles. We intentionally increase the CO2 output of vehicles many times over via the catalytic reaction. We could reduce CO2 emissions a LOT by just eliminating catalytic converters if that's the real problem.

I am not qualified to go much further, but it sure would seem that if we had a significant increase in water and heat we would end up with more clouds (water vapor) very fast. More clouds would mean less sunlight penetration and result in cooling. I'm not sure it's possible for humans or anything else to break the natural heating and cooling cycles.

But I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.

ChrisM
04-29-2008, 08:04 PM
We can all sit here and complain about it but has anyone really changed their way of life yet? Have you quit buying any of your everyday things like, newspaper, smokes, coffee, alcohol, movies, eating out the list could go on and on. Are you going on vacation this year? I dont think most people have done anything hardcore yet. It aint gonna get better anytime soon. Hell we all still have this stupid computor running, how much does that cost ya. You'll know when it gets really bad, this aint nothin. Turn on the tube and see how others in the world are living, it could be worse.

We may not be doing anything but I see people who I know that are in lower tax brackets doing things to save money. I know of people who are carpooling, giving up any and all discretionary spending, and are fighting to hold on to their mortgages by working 2 & 3 jobs.

I have several of my own litmus tests for the economy that you don't see on CNBC and Bloomberg. My litmus tests are real world and are true measures of the economy. Here they are if you care to keep reading.

1) The Goodwill Industries litmus test - I am a bargain shopper and a general cheapskate by nature so I frequent the local Goodwill store. Before you pass judgment, my local Goodwill gets closeouts and discontinued items, and returns from the local Target store. I have picked up many a new and barely touched item. Anyways. You can gauge the quality of the stuff you find on the shelf there and the number of people in the store against the economy. Lately, the stuff that is on the shelf has been total junk. When the economy is good, people buy new TV sets and new furniture and donate their barely or lightly used stuff to Goodwill. I haven't seen a decent living room set or a decent TV or stereo in there in quite a while. The number of patrons is also up sharply. It seems that more people are moving to shopping at thrift stores yet the quality of the merchandise has dropped and Goodwill has raised their prices because of the demand for their items and the increased patronage. This is not a good sign for the economy.

2) The Thursday night out for dinner test - There is a nice mall in my area that mainly houses restaurants and a few chain stores. (Macy's etc.) It is a somewhat affluent area. I would guess that average household income in this area is about $55-60k/yr. A few of the restaurants that are in this area that you might have heard of are Outback, TGIFridays, Pizzeria Unos. At the end of January the parking lots were packed. It would take you anywhere from 1 to 2 hours to get a table if you didn't call ahead. That went down to a 15 minute wait about a month ago. Last Thursday, I walked into Uno's (which has never happened to me ever for dinner) and the restaurant was only 3/4 full. This tells me people have stopped going out. I would say patronage is down by roughly 40-50% in this area.

I went to a mall last week while I was on vacation on the north end of Cincinnati. The anchor store is a Bass Pro Shops. This is a 2 story mall. It has room for perhaps 120 shops. I would bet that there were less than 40 shops open and less than 250 patrons in the entire mall with the exception of the Bass Pro Shop.

The part of Ohio where I live just lost two multiplex movie theaters in the last week due to low attendance rates. They simply couldn't keep the doors open.

People are hurting. I don't think that many folks are looking in the right places to see where the pain is really being experienced but it exists. It just hasn't made it up to the higher tax brackets yet. When it does, it will be too late because the little guy who flips your burgers and does those menial tasks that many take for granted will have been out of work for a long time because he couldn't afford to get there. These manual labor folks and burger flippers are the ones that keep the economy going. If we loose them, the rest will follow.

Jack
04-29-2008, 08:10 PM
I remember the oil crisis of 73! Anywho, what do you expect when you get two oil men in the Whitehouse? IMHO, the Arabs don't give a rat's patutti (thanks Col Potter) if oil is 25 or 200 $ barrel. They have the supply cornered. What is wrong is that the reletively low gas prices of the 80's and 90's, coupled with the "I don't care about anything but me" generation is one of the causes of the gas situation today. Low prices and making big $$ in the dot.com boom meant driving the most exspensive, fuel hog you could get your hands on as a status symbol. I can think of a ton of examples. That coupled with the tree-hugging enviro socialst mantra about save the Alaskan farting tree frog, damned if it puts 5000 people out of work and causes economic chaos! We have lots of oil in the US, plenty for us and screw the world. However, the really big issue is that all these nay-sayers with their global warming are telling us we need to be more like Europe with its public transportation network blah blah blah. Well news flash for you Al G, this ain't Europe!

Man I feel better !

northernlights
04-29-2008, 08:19 PM
I to thought it could go bad some day. I live in a subearth home I built 23 years ago. Burn wood for heat but have back up natural gas. I dont have any fluorescent lights , I hate them. Yep all because of oil and gas. I see why you dont have anything to worry about. Can you step outside and kill your food if need be? ;)

northernlights
04-29-2008, 08:44 PM
I'll give you an answer that will surprise you...

I'm writing this on a laptop that uses about 1/10th of the electric of a desktop computer. I'm sitting in my house that I built last year from Structural Insulated Panels rather than traditional frame construction (2 1/2 times the strength of 2x6" construction, and R50 walls), spray foam R66 insulation in my attic, and heated and cooled by a geothermal ground source system. I can run my entire house independent of the grid if I choose by using my own 25kw generator. Nearly all my lighting is fluorescent. The exterior lighting is Fluorex (66 watt bulbs equal to 550 watt incandescent). I have my own water and sewage system and don't rely on any city services. I use flash hot water systems rather than traditional hot water tanks. I can heat / cool my home for under $50 per month.

Does this mean I'm an environmentalist? Not at all... none of the above was done for environmental reasons. I knew energy prices would do nothing but go up and quite frankly I don't care to pay the power company a lot of money. That was my one and only reason.

Global warming? I've read a lot on the subject. I do believe that our planet is about 0.2 degrees warmer on average than 20 years ago, but I also believe that's within the range of statistical anomaly. We have much better measuring instruments than 20 years ago (and beyond) and many (most?) of the measuring stations used then are now gone.

Even if we establish that global warming exists I have yet to be convinced that there is evidence that humans are responsible for any significant part of the rise. I do see evidence that shows the planet does go thru both heat and cooling cycles and this would occur even if no humans existed. Where we are on the cycle between heat and ice appears to be impossible to determine.

Do I deny that humans are responsible for all or part of global warming? Nope. Just that those promoting such beliefs have failed to provide evidence (and I'm not talking about a political movie, or newspaper articles). I have read quite a bit, and yes I'm aware of the supposed rise in CO2 in ice samples (they fail to acknowledge that previous evidence would have melted). If you believe CO2 is the problem then we should be getting rid of all these catalytic converters on automobiles. We intentionally increase the CO2 output of vehicles many times over via the catalytic reaction. We could reduce CO2 emissions a LOT by just eliminating catalytic converters if that's the real problem.

I am not qualified to go much further, but it sure would seem that if we had a significant increase in water and heat we would end up with more clouds (water vapor) very fast. More clouds would mean less sunlight penetration and result in cooling. I'm not sure it's possible for humans or anything else to break the natural heating and cooling cycles.

But I'm willing to be convinced otherwise.
If your directing this at me,
whats does it have to do with anything that I said besides the computor comment? Your one in a million that has the self contained house. And GLOBAL WARMING were did that come into play? As long as you brought it up most of us know its from the sun.:D

northernlights
04-29-2008, 08:53 PM
We may not be doing anything but I see people who I know that are in lower tax brackets doing things to save money. I know of people who are carpooling, giving up any and all discretionary spending, and are fighting to hold on to their mortgages by working 2 & 3 jobs.

I have several of my own litmus tests for the economy that you don't see on CNBC and Bloomberg. My litmus tests are real world and are true measures of the economy. Here they are if you care to keep reading.

1) The Goodwill Industries litmus test - I am a bargain shopper and a general cheapskate by nature so I frequent the local Goodwill store. Before you pass judgment, my local Goodwill gets closeouts and discontinued items, and returns from the local Target store. I have picked up many a new and barely touched item. Anyways. You can gauge the quality of the stuff you find on the shelf there and the number of people in the store against the economy. Lately, the stuff that is on the shelf has been total junk. When the economy is good, people buy new TV sets and new furniture and donate their barely or lightly used stuff to Goodwill. I haven't seen a decent living room set or a decent TV or stereo in there in quite a while. The number of patrons is also up sharply. It seems that more people are moving to shopping at thrift stores yet the quality of the merchandise has dropped and Goodwill has raised their prices because of the demand for their items and the increased patronage. This is not a good sign for the economy.

2) The Thursday night out for dinner test - There is a nice mall in my area that mainly houses restaurants and a few chain stores. (Macy's etc.) It is a somewhat affluent area. I would guess that average household income in this area is about $55-60k/yr. A few of the restaurants that are in this area that you might have heard of are Outback, TGIFridays, Pizzeria Unos. At the end of January the parking lots were packed. It would take you anywhere from 1 to 2 hours to get a table if you didn't call ahead. That went down to a 15 minute wait about a month ago. Last Thursday, I walked into Uno's (which has never happened to me ever for dinner) and the restaurant was only 3/4 full. This tells me people have stopped going out. I would say patronage is down by roughly 40-50% in this area.

I went to a mall last week while I was on vacation on the north end of Cincinnati. The anchor store is a Bass Pro Shops. This is a 2 story mall. It has room for perhaps 120 shops. I would bet that there were less than 40 shops open and less than 250 patrons in the entire mall with the exception of the Bass Pro Shop.

The part of Ohio where I live just lost two multiplex movie theaters in the last week due to low attendance rates. They simply couldn't keep the doors open.

People are hurting. I don't think that many folks are looking in the right places to see where the pain is really being experienced but it exists. It just hasn't made it up to the higher tax brackets yet. When it does, it will be too late because the little guy who flips your burgers and does those menial tasks that many take for granted will have been out of work for a long time because he couldn't afford to get there. These manual labor folks and burger flippers are the ones that keep the economy going. If we loose them, the rest will follow.

Sorry Chris but up here everyone puts their stuff on Craigs List now and makes money. Many people go later to eat, lots of good hockey playoff games going on. Movies, most dont go to them, they priced themselfs out of it. Bass Pro Shop store, that mall will be jumping soon with opening fishing just aroud the corner.:D

ChrisM
04-29-2008, 09:54 PM
Sorry Chris but up here everyone puts their stuff on Craigs List now and makes money. Many people go later to eat, lots of good hockey playoff games going on. Movies, most dont go to them, they priced themselfs out of it. Bass Pro Shop store, that mall will be jumping soon with opening fishing just aroud the corner.:D


Folks in Cincinnati havent caught onto Craigs list yet and the restaurants aren't busy later at night. No one even knows what hockey is around here. Heck, we don't even like the Reds. I agree about the movie thing. Bass Pro Shops was busy but they are not a strong enough anchor for this mall. All the other ones are long gone. I think that there is a Kohls still out there.

We can agree to disagree on this one but I can tell you that it is truly eerie how dead the retailers are around here no matter what they sell. I hope that I am wrong but I wouldn't bet on it.

arteegee
04-29-2008, 10:17 PM
BP profits up 48% last quarter? How much longer will the oil companies be allowed to hold the economy hostage? This is obscene!:mad:

csimo
04-30-2008, 02:38 AM
BP profits up 48% last quarter? How much longer will the oil companies be allowed to hold the economy hostage? This is obscene!:mad:

If each of us could cut our gasoline usage by just 5 - 10% we'd see a huge drop in price, and other good things would happen.

I'd love to see OPEC told to choke on that crude oil! I would absolutely love it.

northernlights
04-30-2008, 04:30 AM
Will see if they do the temporary (make you feel a little better) tax cut on fuel. As much as I hate taxes like the next guy, this will only make things worse given time.

shovelhd
04-30-2008, 05:59 AM
I remember the oil embargo, and waiting in line for rations. I think gas was about 35 cents/gal back then before the prices doubled.

In general I agree with Chris, and I also agree with those that are saying they don't see a difference. I think it depends where you are, when you are out, and what you are shopping for.

One thing that I've noticed that somebody else mentioned. I found myself on major highways during commuting hours this week, which is unusual as I work close to home. There were the occasional yahoos running at 90+, a small amount of people running at chisoxjim speed, but the vast majority of the traffic had slowed down considerably. Overall, compared to the last time I was commuting via the highway, the traffic levels had dropped as well. There were less vehicles on the road. It's not a scientific observation, but it was noticeable.

FlaGuy509
04-30-2008, 06:17 AM
I commute once a week between Melbourne (Brevard County) & Jupiter (Palm Beach County), I do the drive down here on Monday (usually about 4:00 A.M.) so traffic is light to non-existant but Friday afternoon going home hasnt changed one bit since I started doing this about a year ago. Heavy traffic,most moving well above the listed 70 MPH and LOTS of big SUV's (Expeditions,Surburbans,etc) and even more full size pickups, if these folks are worried about the price of gas I'm not seeing it. I think the folks being hurt most right now are your $40k & below families that were just getting by before, but as gas goes higher I think we'll definetly see more folks affected. I'm not sure how many of these smaller contractors that need to drive the bigger pickups will be able to stay affloat.

r-squared
04-30-2008, 01:10 PM
Perhaps you'll disagree with me but I think it can be quite disruptive to switch cars. Especially if you have a decent car that you've maintained well and you know the history. If I had a large pickup or SUV that was 3 yrs old, I dont know if I'd take the hit on getting rid of it in this climate and then jump into something used (can be a gamble) or a new car I dont necessarily need to be spending money on.

I'm not suggesting that in the long run, driving a more practical car isnt the way to go. But I think at times it can be a matter of getting a grasp around up-front losses for long term returns. I dont know if gas prices have been high enough, long enough to for that majority of people to rationalize the loss on the SUV right now.

I also think some truck and SUV drivers mitigate the increase in gas by doing other cutbacks. For me, I've cut back on "nice-to-haves" like expensive cuts of meat, beer, and I bring my lunch to work instead of buying it. Stupid Opec, I love beer!

shovelhd
04-30-2008, 01:12 PM
Those bastards will have to pry my beer from my cold, dead, rigor mortised hands.

djeaux
04-30-2008, 01:17 PM
Those bastards will have to pry my beer from my cold, dead, rigor mortised hands.

An inalienable right!

“Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy.”
- Benjamin Franklin

dk miller
04-30-2008, 04:37 PM
remember the oil crisis of 73! Anywho, what do you expect when you get two oil men in the Whitehouse?

President Nixon was called a lot of things by many people but I don't recall him ever being called an "oilman". Geez, what a stretch:D

Webwader
04-30-2008, 05:31 PM
shovelhd wrote:
One thing that I've noticed that somebody else mentioned. I found myself on major highways during commuting hours this week, which is unusual as I work close to home. There were the occasional yahoos running at 90+, a small amount of people running at chisoxjim speed, but the vast majority of the traffic had slowed down considerably. Overall, compared to the last time I was commuting via the highway, the traffic levels had dropped as well. There were less vehicles on the road. It's not a scientific observation, but it was noticeable.
We just returned from a 5,400 mile trip to Michigan and I was surprised to find that rising fuel costs was have little to no effect on speed. Whether the speed limit on I84/I80 was 65, 70 or 75, almost all of the cars and a large majority of the trucks were running well over the limit. The exception was in Illinois where enforcement must be a bit tougher. Returning via I69 and I70 as far as Denver, the high speeds did not seem to be as prevalent but were still high. A few cars that passed us had to be doing close to 100. I do think the car traffic was lighter than when we went through last year, but I can't say for sure.

ChrisM
04-30-2008, 07:38 PM
Those bastards will have to pry my beer from my cold, dead, rigor mortised hands.


It's about time this turned into a beer thread. A thread isn't a thread around here until it includes the word beer. :)