[zroger73]

They had electric cars 100+ years ago also.

Well over 100 years ago, actually - long before gasoline-powered cars existed.

On the other hand, steam predated them both, but I highly doubt we'll revert to steam power.

 

[zroger73]

I have prediction: As the number of electric vehicles increases and the number of petroleum-powered vehicles decreases, the cost of electricity will rise due to the increased demand and cost of upgrading the infrastructure. Today, it costs about one-third as much to operate an electric vehicle per mile, but I believe it will reach parity by the time the transition to electric vehicles is mostly complete in, say, 30 years.

I'm speaking way outside my area of expertise, but I believe the economy is like energy - it is neither created nor destroyed - it only changes forms. "They" are going to get their money one way or another and if it doesn't come from gasoline, it'll come from electricity. It's like property taxes - if my taxing entities can't meet their budgets due to property valuations, they simply raise the tax rate to compensate. States that don't have a state income tax just find other ways to get their money such as higher sales tax, vehicle registrations, etc.

 

[zroger73]

My brother-in-law had planned to buy a Tesla Model Y within the next 2-3 years or so, but his decision to do so was accelerated by the recent price drop and $7,500 federal tax credit bringing the purchase price down from $65,990 to $45,490. He'll be selling/trading his 2019 Civic Sport Touring. In order to qualify for the tax credit, you have to purchase the "long range" version instead of the more expensive "performance" version. I suspect he'll order the base vehicle without the enhance autopilot or full self-driving capability.

If I were going to buy a Tesla today and didn't want/need a vehicle with an open bed on occasion, the Model Y would be my choice.

For longer road trips, they'll take my brother's 4Runner until his new RAV4 hybrid arrives next month (finally - seven months after he ordered it).

 

[zroger73]

Such recreational vehicles account for only a small fraction of the number of cars, trucks, and SUVs on the road.

Have you noticed that two-stroke outboard engines are nearly extinct and have been replaced by four-stroke engines with electronic fuel injection and catalytic converters?

Have you noticed that most motorcycles have had electronic fuel injection and catalytic converters for years - even Honda's little Grom does.

 

[zroger73]

I suspect he'll order the base vehicle without the enhance autopilot or full self-driving capability.

He clicked "place order" this weekend for a Model Y Long Range with the optional black wheels.

I'll admit I spent a couple of days hovering over the "place order" button, but didn't do it.

The $7,500 tax credit is only good for vehicles delivered before March 1...for now...and the delivery window is currently "January to March". Some people ordered this weekend and already have estimated delivery dates within the next few weeks (word is that Tesla has ramped up production to extraordinary levels at its Giga Factory in Austin).

There are several possible outcomes:

• The vehicle delivers before March 1 and I get the full $7,500 tax credit
• The vehicle delivers after March 1 and the tax credit is reduced or eliminated.
• The vehicle delivers after March 1 and the tax credit is extended and remains at $7,500.

I could choose not to accept delivery, but I'd lose a $250 order fee. I'm not much of a gambler.

There's also a new hardware version coming soon (two high-res cameras replace three low-res cameras up front). Tesla incorporates software and hardware changes on a continuous basis without respect to model year like nearly every other automaker.

I figure I'll wait until my BIL's Tesla arrives and if the tax credit is extended and the prices don't go back up, maybe I'll finally add a long-overdue EV to the fleet.

 

[zroger73]

The Giga Press is pretty cool.

Indeed. Even though I work for a manufacturing company, it still amazes me to see a component that takes seconds or minutes to make will end up going into a product that will be useful and enjoyed for years, if not decades.

 

[zroger73]

Have you cross shopped anything else yet? A co-worker bought a new Hyundai Ioniq that I was able to drive. I was extremely impressed. My boss has a Model Y long range, so I was able to drive both cars back to back. The ikea styled interior makes the Y seem a bit more special, but the overall fit and finish might be better on the Hyundai. Both cars overall drove very nice, but I am not a fan of the center screen layout of the Tesla. Before the price drop between the two it would be a no brainer pick for the Hyundai. With the price drop, now I am not so sure. The Tesla has a perception of a premium vehicle that the Hyundai can't match. The supercharger network is to be considered as well. The CEO going off the rails with Twitter does not help the case for Tesla though.

Waiting to see what the other brands come out with.

Depite the quality problems and dramatic CEO, a Tesla would be the only EV brand I would consider for the styling, features, and performance - much like a Ridgeline is the only vehicle with an open bed I would buy despite its issues.

Last week I stopped at a 7-11 type convenience store with a row of Tesla chargers. Every single one occupied with others waiting.
For you fellas that know, is this an issue?
And are these charging stations brand limited or universal? Can a Hyundai charge at a Tesla station?

Any EV charger can charge a Tesla. Tesla uses a proprietary connector, but they include an adapter that allows the use of an industry-standard J1772 charging connector.

Tesla chargers can now be used for non-Tesla EVs as well - also by using an adapter.

In short, any EV can use any EV charger or any type of 120 or 240 volt outlet.

The actual chargers for EVs are built into the vehicles. The things we call "chargers" are basically nothing more than "smart extension cords" that tell the vehicle how much power is available for charging so that the vehicle can charge at the available rate. They don't actually do any voltage conversion - that's done by the vehicle. Let's say you connect a level 1 (120 volt) charger to an EV. The "charger" tells the vehicle, "I can supply 120 volts at 12 amps". The EV then accepts the 120 volts directly from the wall outlet and limits charging current to 12 amps. If you plug a Tesla into a "Supercharger", the charger tells the vehicle, "I can supply up to 480 volts at 520 amps". The vehicle then accepts 480 volts directly from the Supercharger and charges at the highest current it can accept up to the maximum available.

 

[zroger73]

It's possible that battery chemistry and motor design will continue to evolve to reduce dependency on these materials, but this isn't necessarily different than the current dependency on Russia for 40% of the palladium used in the catalytic converters for gasoline-powered vehicles.

The war in Ukraine could make stealing catalytic converters more lucrative for thieves

Russia is the world's biggest supplier of palladium, used in the exhaust systems of gasoline-powered vehicles.

www.marketplace.org

 

[zroger73]

Before putting full faith in this, I'd want to independently verify his figures, but I enjoyed the concept of his presentation even though I caught a couple of small errors such as his comparison of a horse and a Corvette. There, he showed the CO2 produced by the horse going to plants which converted it to oxygen which was used by the horse. On the Corvette, he showed the CO2 coming out of the Corvette as accumulating when in reality, the CO2 produced by the Corvette also goes to the plants which convert it to oxygen which is required by the Corvette's engine. There is a CO2 cycle for both the horse and the Corvette, but he suggests there isn't.

Judging by the vehicles people buy, the amount of waste they produce, the excess to which people live, etc., it's obvious to me that most people aren't actually concerned about the environment. Most of the Teslas I see around me are owned by a family of 3 or 4 with a 4-5 bedroom McMansion with all sorts of non-essential luxury items in and around the home.

Personally, I like EVs for their performance, quietness, convenience, cleanliness, low maintenance, smoothness, and low energy cost per mile. Even if they ultimately emit as much or more CO2 over their life than a gasoline-powered vehicle with present technology, those other advantages have real value.

 

[zroger73]

How does insuring an EV compared to and ICE vehicle compare, assuming similar value?

For me through State Farm:

$44,000 Ridgeline = $64.44/mo.
$35,000 Miata = $61.89/mo.
$54,000 Model Y = $126.76/mo.

 

[zroger73]

That's enough of a difference to disqualify the masses from converting to an EV right there.

Its certainly offsets a portion of the fuel savings.

Currently, I drive about 1,100 miles per month and average 21 MPG in the Ridgeline. At $3.00/gallon, I spend $157/mo. for gasoline.

Driving that same distance in a Model Y at $0.10/kWh would cost $31/mo. for electricity.

 

[zroger73]

Appearance - I like their clean, simple design.
Lifestyle - Tesla reminds me a lot of Apple in that you're sort of buying into a lifestyle - there are cheaper products than Apple's that provide similar functionality, but they don't invoke the same sense of emotion and that has value. Objectively, a Chevrolet Bolt might be a smarter choice than a Tesla Model Y, but subjectively, a Bolt is "just another boring, utilitarian EV built to a price point".
Novelty - What other EV has Camp Mode that lets you run the heat/air/infotainment for days at a time? What other EV allows you to play fart noises both inside and outside the vehicle?
Software updates - Tesla tends to add more new features through software updates than other EV makers.

 

[zroger73]

A solid hybrid drivetrain like Toyota uses in the Rav 4 can take a gas engine and almost double the range of the fuel it uses and all the while the gas infrastructure is already in place all across America.

But they still have noisy, vibrating engines that are more annoying under heavy acceleration than engines mated to CVTs. Some people like the smooth quietness of EVs.

And, talk about complexity - hybrids have all the components of a gasoline-powered vehicle and an EV so now you've got engine oil and batteries. EVs are just...simple.

 

[zroger73]

My daily commute is a little over 30 miles round trip. I can't tell you the last time I drove farther than that in one day. It would be a low single digit number of times per year and even then it's usually for work in which case I can take a company vehicle or rent a vehicle with a longer range at the customer's cost. At least in terms of operating cost, an EV makes a lot of sense for me. There's actually a 120 volt outlet near where i park at work. During the 9 hours my vehicle is parked at work, I could gain enough charge for my daily commute and never have to charge at home.

 

[zroger73]

Model Y is the only EV I'd be interested in. I'm still leaning toward waiting until my brother-in-law's arrives in a month or two. If I like it and the tax credit remains at $7,500 then I'll consider ordering.

 

[zroger73]

I suspect it would be a terrible transaction that I would not be proud of, publicly disclose, or fondly remember. I've done well in the past which is how I've been able to trade every year for the past 30+ years. The market has changed dramatically in the two years since my last vehicle purchase.

 

[zroger73]

Absolutely - it's too much of a gambling game right now which is one reason I haven't been able to click the "place order" button.

 

[zroger73]

Here's the way I understand it (and I could be wrong since I only started reading about this a few days ago and am still learning)... The full $7,500 credit requires the EV and the batteries to be made in the US. For EVs made in the US, but with imported batteries, the credit falls to $3,750. For EVs made outside the US with batteries not sourced from the US, there is no rebate.

It is my understanding that there is still ongoing discussion/debate about battery sourcing and why some "cars" are classified as "SUVs" and vice versa. Until this is resolved, the full $7,500 is being allowed even on US-built EVs with imported batteries "until March 2023" at which time it could change or get extended - nobody seems to know, but there are plenty of conflicting predictions.

Model Ys sold in the US are currently built in Freemont and Austin, but their batteries are imported. Technically, they only qualify for the $3,750 rebate, but because of whatever is being debated right now, you get the full $7,500...but the vehicle has to be delivered - not just sold - by March.

 

[zroger73]

Don't you still have your AWD EV?

I do! It's in sleep mode for the Winter. I also bought another EV - a Segway Ninebot Max that has been a lot of fun. It has 40 miles of range at 10 MPH or 20 miles of range at 20 MPH. It costs 8 cents to recharge the battery so that works out to $0.002 to $0.004 per mile. The scooter (or Onewheel) could actually suffice for my daily commute if there was a safe path where I wouldn't get ran over.

 

[zroger73]

Absolutely - it's too much of a gambling game right now which is one reason I haven't been able to click the "place order" button.

After mulling this over for a week, I clicked the order button for a Model Y this morning. If it arrives before the $7,500 tax incentive ends then I'll take it; otherwise, I won't.