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Possibly 1 out of a 100 and counting based on the best-available information.
So possibly 1%? And equally possible, 0.5%? Or less. Or more. The accurate answer being we don't know.

Can't estimate the failure rate based on 54 reports on a forum. And your logic is flawed. For example:
  • You assume that 5% of 2017-2019 owners are active on this forum. Point being assume without data to validate the assumption.
  • You also assume the active 2017-2019 members are representative of the population. This is not true as individuals with failures are more likely to become active in a forum than individuals without. For example, look at the last 7 failures reported in the thread you link. The first post of 4 of these 7 individuals (57%) is to report their transmission failure - i.e. they become active in the forum due to the failure. This significantly skews the data, making your analysis invalid.
The only bit of your analysis which I would consider valid is that the failure rate is greater than 0.054% (obviously be a fair margin).

So not knocking your intent here - your guess is as good as any (and likely better than most others). But it is just a guess. Like 0.35% is a guess.
 

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I appreciate zroger73's estimate and explanation, as well as 17BE's comments. Comparing a 1% or 2% chance of premature failure to the hassles and costs (delivery charge, sales tax, etc., not including difference between sale & purchase price) involved in selling and buying a new Ridgeline, which also won't have some features I like, indicates I should keep my 2018. But then I only have 16,000 miles on it (because I haven't driven it much during the pandemic) so any problems would likely be several years or more down the road, and maybe by then I'll want a new vehicle for other reasons.
 

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Honda stated in their 2017 transmission SB 17-026 that the judder will not damage the transmission.
Bill
Yes and I would not expect them to say anything else because that would be admitting guilt of selling defective transmissions. The judder is fixed when the fluid is changed so what does that tell you about the fluid that was in there? I think its common knowledge on this forum that changing the fluid often in the 6 sp gives it a greater chance of lasting. I think the opposite would be true if you ignored it. I know I will be paying attention to it for sure.
 

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And your logic is flawed.
Point being assume without data to validate the assumption.
This significantly skews the data, making your analysis invalid.
I get that 6-speed owners are rather sensitive to the discussion of failure rates for this transmission.
But I'm not sure what your beef with zroger's take is.

He never proclaimed to know the exact failure rate. He simply provided a well-reasoned estimation based on the data available to him (hence the phrase "possibly 1 in 100"). I don't see how your points show his "logic is flawed" or that his "analysis is invalid". You later seem to even support his estimation, saying it is "likely better than most others".

Your main issue is with his estimation based on forum membership.
But as longball points out..."I think its common knowledge on this forum that changing the fluid often in the 6 sp gives it a greater chance of lasting."
Forum membership has likely prevented many 6-speed failures (compared to the general population), due to owners being more aware of the situation, monitoring their trucks closely, and having the transmission serviced more frequently. This actually skews the data in the opposite direction you were claiming, "making your analysis invalid".
 

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I get that 6-speed owners are rather sensitive to the discussion of failure rates for this transmission.
But I'm not sure what your beef with zroger's take is.
I'm not sensitive to a discussion of failure rate, in fact I'm actually discussing the failure rate. And I'm saying it might be lower or it might even be higher!

All I am pointing out is that internet forum members do not have the data to estimate a failure rate. You should see the work that goes into reliability and safety analysis (FMEAs, FTAs, etc) for automotive and aerospace, then you'll understand the futility in trying to estimate a failure rate based on 54 ('non-random') internet posts.

I also don't "have a beef" with Zroger, as I explicitly stated "So not knocking your intent here - your guess is as good as any (and likely better than most others)."

I don't see how your points show his "logic is flawed"
Yes, your following statements show you're not following it.
 

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With the initial programming with the 2017 a multi-dump fluid change showed to be beneficial, but after reprogramming I am having my doubts about continuing this practice as shared here: What I (think I) have learned about the 6-speed...
Bill
I read that and appreciate you pointing me there. I agree with Seths assessment:

"The bottom line is we have no idea if fluid is the culprit or not. I have not seen any of the owners who posted failures state they used anything but DW-1. That means very little because probably 99% of these trans have DW-1 in them. But I have said it before, the only easy change we can make to the trans in hopes of trying to prevent a failure is the fluid.

What I think I have learned is we will never know what has caused many of these trans to fail far earlier than they should. Maybe a different fluid makes a difference, maybe it has no effect. I think the one thing that makes sense is to change the fluid more often than the MM suggests, regardless of the type of fluid that you choose to use."

All I know "for sure" is this forum is a great source of info...I appreciate all of you guys input & wisdom
 

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the only easy change we can make to the trans in hopes of trying to prevent a failure is the fluid...
I think the one thing that makes sense is to change the fluid more often than the MM suggests, regardless of the type of fluid that you choose to use."
Agree that fluids is the main variable that 6AT owners have to play with. I'd say the general consensus on here and Piloteers is either switch fluids or change more frequently, or both (another controversial topic now started) :)
 

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All I am pointing out is that internet forum members do not have the data to estimate a failure rate.
I don't think anyone here thought zroger was proclaiming a specific failure rate with a high degree of statistical confidence.
He's simply providing a rough estimate based on the information we have.

Saying the failure rate may be around 1% (or 2% if you include torque converters) is reasonable and helpful to put things into perspective.
It also aligns with the information Honda published regarding the 6-speed in the 2017 model. And would seem to be far more accurate than the 0.054% you suggested.

I also don't "have a beef" with Zroger
I didn't say you had a beef with "zroger". I said you had a beef with zroger's "TAKE".
Which you did..."And your logic is flawed", "your analysis invalid".
 

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Won't bother replying to all your inaccuracies, but just using this as one example on how you misrepresent things...
far more accurate than the 0.054% you suggested
I did not suggest the FR is 0.054%. Let's rewind and look at what was actually said...
it's most certainly far greater than a 0.054% failure rate (54 / 100,000).
[The] bit of your analysis which I would consider valid is that the failure rate is greater than 0.054% (obviously by a fair margin).
So, I was agreeing with Zroger that the FR will obviously be far in excess of 0.054%. Neither Zroger or I suggested the FR is 0.054%. In fact we can bump that up to 0.056% now :)
 

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The blindspot monitoring is a plus.
The navigation is garbage so I wouldn't factor that in. I have a 2021 Black Edition and I only use Android Auto for navigation. I think the 2020 RTL has Android Auto and Apple Carplay.
Assuming it does I would go with the 2020 for the 9 speed.

Another note, since they have similar milage it is easy to assume they have the same life left in them. Since they are only one year apart that may be true but I would go with the newer one.
I say this because the year does matter. Especially if you are in a climate like mine where roads get salted. Vehicles don't get worn down by miles like they used to. Years of being in the elements still rots them. The most unreliable vehicles I have had I bought because they were low milage. Granted they were much older than what you are looking at but they rotted out from all the winters.
My two most reliable vehicles have been high milage but had less winters on the road.
 

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Won't bother replying to all your inaccuracies, but just using this as one example on how you misrepresent things...
I did not suggest the FR is 0.054%. Let's rewind and look at what was actually said...
I was simply quoting the previous exchange you were responding to in post #81...

17BE -"Don't worry - 54 out of over 100,000 sold isn’t anything to get too worried about."
zroger - "it's most certainly far greater than a 0.054% failure rate (54 / 100,000)."
 

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For those of you who think the judder isn't a problem and doesn't cause transmission failures. You should look at the oil analysis sheets that those of us have done. What is happening is that the fluid viscosity levels are dropping quickly. Even after a 3x change they can drop quickly. Even with a better base stock fluid like AMSOIL it seems to drop quickly. A good change interval will keep the judder at bay and also keep your viscosity levels up high enough to PREVENT the judder problem (which is a side effect of worn out fluid). Sure, Honda may say that it won't cause problems (and sure, changing the fluid helps of course) but long term I think we are seeing the failures occurring in higher mileages now that the Ridgeline has been in operation for a while. Back when these were new there were early premature trans failures but they could have been for low quality parts issues. With mileage on them now the thing we will see is mileage failures from use and time. Keeping up on the fluid is now more important than ever. Keep the viscosity levels up there and it'll protect the moving parts in the transmissions and will prevent metal on metal wear. That's one of it's important purposes. Reduced long term wear.
 

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For those of you who think the judder isn't a problem and doesn't cause transmission failures. You should look at the oil analysis sheets that those of us have done. What is happening is that the fluid viscosity levels are dropping quickly. Even after a 3x change they can drop quickly. Even with a better base stock fluid like AMSOIL it seems to drop quickly. A good change interval will keep the judder at bay and also keep your viscosity levels up high enough to PREVENT the judder problem (which is a side effect of worn out fluid). Sure, Honda may say that it won't cause problems (and sure, changing the fluid helps of course) but long term I think we are seeing the failures occurring in higher mileages now that the Ridgeline has been in operation for a while. Back when these were new there were early premature trans failures but they could have been for low quality parts issues. With mileage on them now the thing we will see is mileage failures from use and time. Keeping up on the fluid is now more important than ever. Keep the viscosity levels up there and it'll protect the moving parts in the transmissions and will prevent metal on metal wear. That's one of it's important purposes. Reduced long term wear.
With the viscosity numbers presented here so far we have noted viscosity numbers dropping, (hovering?) to around 5, but not much below that. Change the fluid and it increases very temporarily, but rapidly decreasing back to “5.” I am beginning to believe that “5” is proving to be what is normal, and acceptable for the 6-speed. Our next analysis at approximately 70,000 miles should prove/disprove this theory.

Bill
 

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I was simply quoting the previous exchange you were responding to in post #81...

17BE -"Don't worry - 54 out of over 100,000 sold isn’t anything to get too worried about."
zroger - "it's most certainly far greater than a 0.054% failure rate (54 / 100,000)."
Ah, you're struggling with "context" again :). As I mentioned above, it is 56 now and no, I don't think 56 reports of failures on this forum is something to get too worried about.

And again, I did not state that there are only 54/56 failures in the population of 100,000 vehicles. FR is a completely different discussion and it is clear that FR is far in excess of 0.054% as obviously (to most) not everyone with a transmission failure in going to come on here to post.
 

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I've spent several hours per day every day on this forum for over 15 years. Six of the 12 Honda automobiles I've owned have been Ridgelines. I know what breaks and what doesn't break on Ridgelines and I know what people talk about on here. To me or anyone else who has been a regular reader of this forum for most or all of the Ridgeline's existence and has a good pulse on the model, 56 reported transmission failures is most certainly concerning.
 

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Ah, you're struggling with "context" again :). As I mentioned above, it is 56 now and no, I don't think 56 reports of failures on this forum is something to get too worried about.
And again, I did not state that there are only 54/56 failures in the population of 100,000 vehicles. FR is a completely different discussion and it is clear that FR is far in excess of 0.054% as obviously (to most) not everyone with a transmission failure in going to come on here to post.
The context is very clear. zroger provided a well-reasoned estimation, citing this exchange:
17BE - Don't worry - 54 out of over 100,000 sold isn’t anything to get too worried about.
zroger - 1,080 / 100,000 = 1% failure rate...and counting - it's most certainly far greater than a 0.054% failure rate (54 / 100,000).

You responded to zroger's post by saying..."your logic is flawed" and "your analysis invalid".
I'm simply saying his estimation is certainly logical, reasonable and rational, given the information available.
 

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ZRoger has been collecting the 6-speed transmission failure data, and if I remember correctly (I assume he'll jump in if I'm mis-quoting), he concluded that with the six-speed tranny you either have a good one or a bad one; i.e. there's no apparent logic, rhyme or reason to help us predict if a particular unit will go bad.

Personally I'm at 39k on my 2019 RTL, and since I've had no trouble so far (hope I didn't just jinx myself :) ) I've decided not to worry about it until I get to the 60k power train warranty deadline. So far I'd describe its operation as strong and smooth; I like the feel of it.
I am preety happy after 3 years (2019 rtl). I know every brand has problems. I know a guy (here we go, but I actually do) who bought several vehicles from VROOM / Carvana. He returned a few due to some unknown issues but told me the warranty is better than any dealer. Finally settled into BMW AUDI and Toyota and is happy with all three. I usually by new every 12 - 15 years whether I need it or not :)
 
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